Avangard Kursk 0–1 Saturn Ramenskoye

Avangard Kursk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Saturn Ramenskoye

K. Kavyndikov 84'

4/11/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Avangard Kursk46%

×Draw25%

Saturn Ramenskoye29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchSaturn Ramenskoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.17

Avangard Kursk

1.54

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.17

Avangard Kursk creates 32% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 60 away

1.50

creates per match

1.32

1.02

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.50

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.32

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.02

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

71%

Avangard Kursk or Saturn Ramenskoye

75%

Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye

54%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

23%

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

79%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

45%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

20%

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

69%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

33%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

61%

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.32 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

46%

level

25%

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

29%

Avangard Kursk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

M. Shirokov← V. Tyavin

57'

A. Gorbulin← D. Sedykh

62'

K. Kavyndikov← A. Maksimchuk

62'

N. Korobov← S. Radostev

78'

D. Zavarukhin← A. Mitasov

80'

I. Sharov← Y. Zheleznov

84'

K. Kavyndikov

87'

S. Yarygin← A. Gorbulin

Avangard

Saturn

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Belyaev

57'▲A. Gorbulin←▼D. Sedykh

78'▲D. Zavarukhin←▼A. Mitasov

87'▲S. Yarygin←▼A. Gorbulin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

GorbulinZavarukhinYarygin

Manager: S. Zhukov

52'▲M. Shirokov←▼V. Tyavin

62'▲K. Kavyndikov←▼A. Maksimchuk

62'▲N. Korobov←▼S. Radostev

80'▲I. Sharov←▼Y. Zheleznov

Saturn Ramenskoye substitutes

ShirokovKavyndikovKorobovSharov

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Saturn Ramenskoye

Saturn Ramenskoye beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 11, 2021.

Goals: K. Kavyndikov (84').

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.

Avangard Kursk vs Saturn Ramenskoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Saturn Ramenskoye