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Avangard Kursk vs Sakhalinets — Second League - Group 3 2020

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
10/1/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Avangard Kursk33%
×Draw26%
Sakhalinets41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.25
Sakhalinets
1.41

Sakhalinets creates 13% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 25 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.50
Sakhalinets
1.80

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.02
Sakhalinets
1.00

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Sakhalinets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
59%
Avangard Kursk or Sakhalinets
74%
Draw or Sakhalinets
67%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
14%
Sakhalinets wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
71%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
36%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
13%
Sakhalinets 1+ goals
76%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
41%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
45%
Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Sakhalinets away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Sakhalinets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sakhalinets attack 1.80 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
33%
level
26%
Sakhalinets scores more
41%

Sakhalinets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sakhalinets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Avangard Kursk 0–0 Sakhalinets

Avangard Kursk and Sakhalinets drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Kolomna.