Avangard Kursk 1–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

V. Steklov 37'

8/8/2018

First League · Round 5Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Avangard Kursk37%

×Draw28%

Rotor Volgograd35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.15

Avangard Kursk

1.21

Rotor Volgograd

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 87 away

1.44

creates per match

1.05

1.25

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.44

Rotor Volgograd

1.05

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.25

Rotor Volgograd

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

65%

Avangard Kursk or Rotor Volgograd

72%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

63%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

16%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

70%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

34%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

12%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

68%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

32%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

52%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.44 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.05 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

37%

level

28%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

35%

Avangard Kursk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

V. Steklov

60'

A. Myazin← I. Abdulavov

66'

A. Popov← K. Mullin

72'

E. Chabanov← D. Yakuba

76'

A. Fedchuk← R. Akbashev

87'

D. Sinyaev← I. Alshin

89'

V. Rudenko← O. Kasyan

90+1'

A. Voynov← M. Zemskov

Avangard

Rotor

1

43

28

3

8

▼

11

7

30

13

72

▼

Mullin

9

▼

13

71

24

93

97

7

▼

Akbashev

20

⚽

Steklov

87

Korobov

19

▼

Kasyan

70

▼

Alshin

8

▼

Zemskov

Manager: I. Belyaev

76'▲A. Fedchuk←▼R. Akbashev

87'▲D. Sinyaev←▼I. Alshin

89'▲V. Rudenko←▼O. Kasyan

90+1'▲A. Voynov←▼M. Zemskov

Avangard Kursk substitutes

10Fedchuk17Sinyaev27Rudenko22Voynov1Sautin14Kovalev77Minaev

Manager: R. Evdokimov

60'▲A. Myazin←▼I. Abdulavov

66'▲A. Popov←▼K. Mullin

72'▲E. Chabanov←▼D. Yakuba

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

87Myazin25Popov97Chabanov4Shcherbakov5Piskunov23Vasilyev31Zavezyon41Lobantsev77Lobkarev