Avangard Kursk 3–2 Peresvet Podolsk: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Peresvet Podolsk

8/21/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Avangard Kursk58%

×Draw21%

Peresvet Podolsk21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchPeresvet Podolsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.13

Avangard Kursk

2.01

Peresvet Podolsk

1.13

Avangard Kursk creates 78% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 42 away

1.50

creates per match

1.24

1.02

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.50

Peresvet Podolsk

1.24

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.02

Peresvet Podolsk

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

79%

Avangard Kursk or Peresvet Podolsk

79%

Draw or Peresvet Podolsk

42%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

34%

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

87%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

59%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

32%

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

68%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

31%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

73%

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.01

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

58%

level

21%

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

21%

Avangard Kursk at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff