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Avangard Kursk vs Luch-Energiya — First League 2018

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Luch-Energiya
Luch-Energiya
4/28/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Avangard Kursk44%
×Draw28%
Luch-Energiya28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.32
Luch-Energiya
0.99

Avangard Kursk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 40 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.42
Luch-Energiya
0.85

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.12
Luch-Energiya
1.23

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Luch-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Luch-Energiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
72%
Avangard Kursk or Luch-Energiya
72%
Draw or Luch-Energiya
56%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
20%
Luch-Energiya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
73%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
38%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
15%
Luch-Energiya 1+ goals
63%
Luch-Energiya 2+ goals
26%
Luch-Energiya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
61%
Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Luch-Energiya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.42 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Luch-Energiya attack 0.85 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
44%
level
28%
Luch-Energiya scores more
28%

Avangard Kursk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Luch-Energiya

Avangard Kursk and Luch-Energiya drew 2-2 in First League on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk).