Avangard Kursk 1–1 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leningradets

D. Malykhin 90+6'

D. Barkov 46'

10/6/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 12Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Avangard Kursk42%

×Draw29%

Leningradets29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.98

Avangard Kursk

1.24

Leningradets

0.98

Avangard Kursk creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.22

creates per match

1.07

0.89

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.22

Leningradets

1.07

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

0.89

Leningradets

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

71%

Avangard Kursk or Leningradets

71%

Draw or Leningradets

58%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

19%

Leningradets wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

71%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

35%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

13%

Leningradets 1+ goals

62%

Leningradets 2+ goals

26%

Leningradets 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

59%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.22 + Leningradets defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Leningradets attack 1.07 + Avangard Kursk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

42%

level

29%

Leningradets scores more

29%

Avangard Kursk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Barkov

60'

V. Shepelev← E. Sukhanov

60'

A. Kukharchuk← D. Yakovlev

61'

D. Kozlov

71'

D. Knyazev← R. Yamlikhanov

71'

E. Nabatov← D. Savin

74'

M. Bachinskiy← N. Rozmanov

84'

S. Ilyin← D. Barkov

84'

A. Yakovlev← I. Bykovskiy

85'

D. Kirakosyan← I. Matyushenko

85'

D. Pavlov← V. Ignatenko

89'

R. Izotov← E. Mukhin

90'

I. Volnov

90+6'

D. Malykhin

Avangard

Leningradets

1

Smirnov

69

Kozlov

57

▼

41

2

28

7

18

▼

Sukhanov

9

▼

Rozmanov

92

⚽

▼

Barkov

71

▼

1

22

71

14

▼

Yamlikhan

63

Volnov

7

▼

Ignatenko

8

⚽

Malykhin

3

Chibisov

78

▼

Mukhin

10

▼

Savin

17

▼

Matyushen

Manager: I. Belyaev

71'▲D. Knyazev←▼R. Yamlikhanov

71'▲E. Nabatov←▼D. Savin

85'▲D. Kirakosyan←▼I. Matyushenko

85'▲D. Pavlov←▼V. Ignatenko

89'▲R. Izotov←▼E. Mukhin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

31Knyazev77Nabatov73Kirakosyan90Pavlov79Izotov13Skorobogatko16Eshchenko57Konshin

Manager: V. Evseev

60'▲V. Shepelev←▼E. Sukhanov

60'▲A. Kukharchuk←▼D. Yakovlev

74'▲M. Bachinskiy←▼N. Rozmanov

84'▲S. Ilyin←▼D. Barkov

84'▲A. Yakovlev←▼I. Bykovskiy

Leningradets substitutes

21Shepelev79Kukharchuk77Bachinskiy23Ilyin33Yakovlev4Kudryavtsev8Gorulev47Kazakov68Grigoryev82Arkhipenko97Khityaev