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Avangard Kursk vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
9/29/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Avangard Kursk46%
×Draw28%
FC Armavir26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.33
FC Armavir
0.91

Avangard Kursk creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.42
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.12
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
74%
Avangard Kursk or FC Armavir
72%
Draw or FC Armavir
54%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
22%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
74%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
38%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
15%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
60%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
23%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
64%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.42 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
46%
level
28%
FC Armavir scores more
26%

Avangard Kursk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Avangard Kursk 2–1 FC Armavir

Avangard Kursk beat FC Armavir 2-1 in First League on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.