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Avangard Kursk vs Enisey — First League 2026

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
CANC
22:00
Enisey
Enisey
5/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Avangard Kursk46%
×Draw26%
Enisey28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.48
Enisey
1.11

Avangard Kursk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 126 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.53
Enisey
1.02

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.21
Enisey
1.43

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
72%
Avangard Kursk or Enisey
74%
Draw or Enisey
54%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
23%
Enisey wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
77%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
43%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
19%
Enisey 1+ goals
67%
Enisey 2+ goals
30%
Enisey 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
62%
Enisey (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.43 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.53 + Enisey defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Enisey attack 1.02 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
46%
level
26%
Enisey scores more
28%

Avangard Kursk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avangard Kursk vs Enisey — Match Preview

Avangard Kursk face Enisey on May 9, 2020 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.