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Avangard Kursk vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Cup 2019

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
10/5/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Avangard Kursk43%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Makhachkala33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.60
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38

Avangard Kursk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.86
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.43
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
67%
Avangard Kursk or Dinamo Makhachkala
76%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
57%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
80%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
47%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
22%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
56%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.86 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
43%
level
24%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
33%

Avangard Kursk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Avangard Kursk 0–2 Dinamo Makhachkala

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Avangard Kursk 2-0 in Cup on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.