Avangard Kursk 0–1 Chelyabinsk: Result & Stats

Avangard Kursk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chelyabinsk

A. Pomerko 67'

10/27/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 15Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Avangard Kursk33%

×Draw29%

Chelyabinsk39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchChelyabinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.17

Avangard Kursk

1.05

Chelyabinsk

1.17

Chelyabinsk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

1.44

0.89

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.22

Chelyabinsk

1.44

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

0.89

Chelyabinsk

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Chelyabinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

61%

Avangard Kursk or Chelyabinsk

71%

Draw or Chelyabinsk

67%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

13%

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

65%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

28%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

9%

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

69%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

33%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

46%

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.22 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Avangard Kursk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

33%

level

29%

Chelyabinsk scores more

39%

Chelyabinsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

I. Matyushenko

42'

D. Malykhin

46'

A. Ageev← D. Malykhin

46'

D. Pokotylo← G. Levin

56'

Y. Gudkov

59'

D. Pushkarev← R. Kosyanchuk

59'

I. Gruznov← V. Gorbachik

67'

A. Pomerko

71'

D. Knyazev← V. Ignatenko

71'

D. Pavlov← D. Savin

73'

I. Gruznov

74'

R. Yamlikhanov

80'

85'

R. Izotov← I. Matyushenko

87'

A. Lyakh← K. Kertanov

90'

N. Goldobin← A. Nosov

Avangard

Chelyabinsk

1

2

44

63

66

20

⚽

Pomerko

37

▼

Kosyanchu

18

▼

Kertanov

11

▼

Nosov

70

▼

Levin

33

▼

1

22

71

14

63

7

▼

Ignatenko

8

▼

Malykhin

3

Chibisov

78

Mukhin

10

▼

Savin

17

▼

Matyushen

Manager: I. Belyaev

46'▲A. Ageev←▼D. Malykhin

71'▲D. Knyazev←▼V. Ignatenko

71'▲D. Pavlov←▼D. Savin

85'▲R. Izotov←▼I. Matyushenko

Avangard Kursk substitutes

76Ageev31Knyazev90Pavlov79Izotov13Skorobogatko16Eshchenko25Nekrasov73Kirakosyan77Nabatov

Manager: R. Pilipchuk

46'▲D. Pokotylo←▼G. Levin

59'▲D. Pushkarev←▼R. Kosyanchuk

59'▲I. Gruznov←▼V. Gorbachik

87'▲A. Lyakh←▼K. Kertanov

90'▲N. Goldobin←▼A. Nosov

Chelyabinsk substitutes

22Pokotylo15Pushkarev36Gruznov90Lyakh97Goldobin13Tushin23Rybikov47Furman

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Chelyabinsk

Chelyabinsk beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Pomerko (67').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.

Avangard Kursk vs Chelyabinsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Chelyabinsk