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Avangard Kursk vs Broke Boys — Cup 2019

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Broke Boys
Broke Boys
V. Ignatenko 7'
R. Levkin 73'
F. Smolov 46'
8/21/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Avangard Kursk34%
×Draw26%
Broke Boys40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.27
Broke Boys
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.86
Broke Boys
1.33

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.43
Broke Boys
0.67

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Broke Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Broke Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
60%
Avangard Kursk or Broke Boys
74%
Draw or Broke Boys
66%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
15%
Broke Boys wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
72%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
36%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
14%
Broke Boys 1+ goals
75%
Broke Boys 2+ goals
40%
Broke Boys 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
47%
Broke Boys (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Broke Boys away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.86 + Broke Boys defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Broke Boys attack 1.33 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
34%
level
26%
Broke Boys scores more
40%

Broke Boys at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Broke Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
V. Ignatenko
46'
F. Smolov
73'
R. Levkin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Avangard Kursk 1–2 Broke Boys

Broke Boys beat Avangard Kursk 2-1 in Cup on August 21, 2025.

Goals: V. Ignatenko (7'), F. Smolov (46'), R. Levkin (73').

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina in Oryol (Orel).