Avance Ezcabarte 1–1 San Juan: Result & Stats

Avance Ezcabarte

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Juan

1/18/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 18Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte38%

×Draw26%

San Juan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avance EzcabarteExpected goals in this matchSan Juan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.30

Avance Ezcabarte

1.33

San Juan

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 62 away

1.72

creates per match

1.29

1.31

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte

1.72

San Juan

1.29

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte

1.31

San Juan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

San Juan →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw

64%

Avance Ezcabarte or San Juan

74%

Draw or San Juan

62%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+

17%

San Juan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals

74%

Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals

38%

Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals

15%

San Juan 1+ goals

73%

San Juan 2+ goals

37%

San Juan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)

51%

San Juan (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.33

San Juan attack 1.29 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more

38%

level

26%

San Juan scores more

36%

Avance Ezcabarte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avance Ezcabarte vs San Juan

Avance Ezcabarte and San Juan drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Igueldea in Arre.

Avance Ezcabarte vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Avance Ezcabarte vs San Juan