Avance Ezcabarte 3–4 Pamplona: Result & Stats

Avance Ezcabarte

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Pamplona

4/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 29Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte42%

×Draw26%

Pamplona32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avance EzcabarteExpected goals in this matchPamplona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Avance Ezcabarte

1.46

Pamplona

1.23

Avance Ezcabarte creates 19% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 110 away

1.72

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte

1.72

Pamplona

1.15

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte

1.31

Pamplona

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

Pamplona →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw

68%

Avance Ezcabarte or Pamplona

74%

Draw or Pamplona

58%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+

20%

Pamplona wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals

77%

Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals

43%

Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals

18%

Pamplona 1+ goals

71%

Pamplona 2+ goals

35%

Pamplona 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)

57%

Pamplona (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more

42%

level

26%

Pamplona scores more

32%

Avance Ezcabarte at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff