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Avance Ezcabarte vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
2/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte46%
×Draw25%
Beti Onak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avance Ezcabarte
1.61
Beti Onak
1.22

Avance Ezcabarte creates 32% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 109 away

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.72
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.31
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw
71%
Avance Ezcabarte or Beti Onak
75%
Draw or Beti Onak
54%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
24%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
80%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
48%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
22%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
70%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
34%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
62%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more
46%
level
25%
Beti Onak scores more
29%

Avance Ezcabarte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avance Ezcabarte vs Beti Onak

Avance Ezcabarte beat Beti Onak 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Igueldea in Arre.