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Avance Ezcabarte vs Ardoi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ardoi
Ardoi
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte41%
×Draw26%
Ardoi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avance Ezcabarte
1.43
Ardoi
1.27

Avance Ezcabarte creates 13% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 92 away

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.72
Ardoi
1.22

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.31
Ardoi
1.14

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par
Ardoi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

Ardoi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw
67%
Avance Ezcabarte or Ardoi
74%
Draw or Ardoi
59%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
19%
Ardoi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
76%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
42%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
17%
Ardoi 1+ goals
72%
Ardoi 2+ goals
36%
Ardoi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
55%
Ardoi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Ardoi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.14 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + Ardoi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ardoi attack 1.22 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more
41%
level
26%
Ardoi scores more
33%

Avance Ezcabarte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Avance Ezcabarte 1–1 Ardoi

Avance Ezcabarte and Ardoi drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Igueldea in Arre.