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Avaldsnes W vs Brann W — Toppserien 2021

Avaldsnes W
Avaldsnes W
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
Brann W
Brann W
9/16/2023ToppserienToppserien · Round 21Avaldsnes Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Avaldsnes W13%
×Draw19%
Brann W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avaldsnes W
0.83
Brann W
2.20

Brann W creates 165% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 58 away

creates per match

Avaldsnes W
0.90
Brann W
2.72

allows per match

Avaldsnes W
1.68
Brann W
0.76

finishing

Avaldsnes W+0.00on par
Brann W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avaldsnes W ↓

Brann W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Avaldsnes W or draw
32%
Avaldsnes W or Brann W
81%
Draw or Brann W
87%

Winning margin

Avaldsnes W wins by 2+
4%
Brann W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Avaldsnes W 1+ goals
56%
Avaldsnes W 2+ goals
20%
Avaldsnes W 3+ goals
5%
Brann W 1+ goals
89%
Brann W 2+ goals
64%
Brann W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Avaldsnes W (draw refunded)
16%
Brann W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avaldsnes W at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

Brann W away — creates 2.72, concedes 0.76 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avaldsnes W attack 0.90 + Brann W defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Brann W attack 2.72 + Avaldsnes W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Avaldsnes W scores more
13%
level
19%
Brann W scores more
68%

Brann W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avaldsnes W vs Brann W

Brann W beat Avaldsnes W 8-0 in Toppserien on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Avaldsnes Idrettssenter in Avaldsnes.