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Avai vs Sampaio Correa — Serie B 2026

Avai
Avai
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sampaio Correa
Sampaio Correa
11/28/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 38Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Avai46%
×Draw29%
Sampaio Correa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avai
1.25
Sampaio Correa
0.85

Avai creates 47% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 95 away

creates per match

Avai
1.21
Sampaio Correa
0.77

allows per match

Avai
0.93
Sampaio Correa
1.29

finishing

Avai+0.00on par
Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Sampaio Correa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Avai or draw
75%
Avai or Sampaio Correa
71%
Draw or Sampaio Correa
54%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+
21%
Sampaio Correa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals
71%
Avai 2+ goals
36%
Avai 3+ goals
13%
Sampaio Correa 1+ goals
57%
Sampaio Correa 2+ goals
21%
Sampaio Correa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)
64%
Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.29 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.21 + Sampaio Correa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sampaio Correa attack 0.77 + Avai defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avai scores more
46%
level
29%
Sampaio Correa scores more
25%

Avai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Avai 2–1 Sampaio Correa

Avai beat Sampaio Correa 2-1 in Serie B on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.