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Avai vs Oeste — Serie B 2026

Avai
Avai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oeste
Oeste
Renato 45+1'
Conrado 51'
10/20/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 32Estádio da Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Avai49%
×Draw27%
Oeste25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avai
1.46
Oeste
0.95

Avai creates 54% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 73 away

creates per match

Avai
1.24
Oeste
0.97

allows per match

Avai
0.93
Oeste
1.67

finishing

Avai+0.00on par
Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Avai or draw
75%
Avai or Oeste
73%
Draw or Oeste
51%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+
24%
Oeste wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals
77%
Avai 2+ goals
43%
Avai 3+ goals
18%
Oeste 1+ goals
61%
Oeste 2+ goals
25%
Oeste 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)
67%
Oeste (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Oeste away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.24 + Oeste defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oeste attack 0.97 + Avai defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Avai scores more
49%
level
27%
Oeste scores more
25%

Avai at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
Renato
46'
Raphael Indio← Jomar
48'
Rodrigão
51'
Conrado↳ Pedrinho
55'
Luanzinho← Marquinhos
71'
Pedro Castro
72'
Jones Carioca← Getúlio
73'
Betinho
75'
Luan Pereira
77'
Felipe Cruz← Pedrinho
80'
Daniel Amorim← Pedro Castro
86'
Capa
87'
Rodrigo Souza← Marcinho
90'
Jones Carioca

Possession

44%Avai

Shots

20Avai

Pass accuracy

49%Avai

Statistics

AvaiOeste
Overview
44%Possession56%
20Total Shots11
9Corners5
16Fouls16
Shots
20Total Shots11
7On Target5
8Off Target3
5Blocked3
11Inside Box8
9Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
326Total Passes443
238Accurate Passes333
73%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls16
5Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Serie B: Avai 1–1 Oeste

Avai and Oeste drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 20, 2018.

Goals: Renato (45+1'), Conrado (51').

Oeste controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estádio da Ressacada in Florianopolis.