Avai 2–0 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nautico Recife

João Lucas 90+2'

Yago 55' (OG)

8/14/2021

Serie B · Round 18Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Avai43%

×Draw24%

Nautico Recife33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.39

Avai

1.63

Nautico Recife

1.39

Avai creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.36

creates per match

1.52

1.26

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Avai

1.36

Nautico Recife

1.52

allows per match

Avai

1.26

Nautico Recife

1.89

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

Avai+0.21scores more

Nautico Recife+0.68scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Avai or draw

67%

Avai or Nautico Recife

76%

Draw or Nautico Recife

57%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

22%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

80%

Avai 2+ goals

48%

Avai 3+ goals

22%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

75%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

40%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

57%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 7 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.36 + Nautico Recife defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nautico Recife attack 1.52 + Avai defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avai scores more

43%

level

24%

Nautico Recife scores more

33%

Avai at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Vinícius Leite

Avai · M

7.7

Match Events

31'

Bryan

35'

Edílson

46'

Vinícius Leite← J. Copete

46'

Luiz Henrique← Matheus Trindade

52'

Bryan

52'

Bryan

53'

Rafinha← Matheus Carvalho

55'

YagoOwn goal

68'

João Lucas← Edílson

73'

Tailson← Jean Carlos

73'

Iago Dias← Caio Dantas

80'

Wesley Soares← Bruno Silva

80'

Valdívia← Marcos Serrato

80'

Jean Cleber← Renato

90+2'

João Lucas↳ Betão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiNautico

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots5

8Corners4

23Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots5

4On Target2

5Off Target1

3Blocked2

6Inside Box1

6Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

414Total Passes334

321Accurate Passes247

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3