Avai 1–0 Mirassol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirassol

S. Patiño 90+6'

4/22/2023

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Avai48%

×Draw29%

Mirassol23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.79

Avai

1.29

Mirassol

0.79

Avai creates 63% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

1.32

creates per match

0.72

0.87

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Avai

1.32

Mirassol

0.72

allows per match

Avai

0.87

Mirassol

1.26

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Avai-0.14scores less

Mirassol-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Avai or draw

77%

Avai or Mirassol

71%

Draw or Mirassol

52%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

22%

Mirassol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

72%

Avai 2+ goals

37%

Avai 3+ goals

14%

Mirassol 1+ goals

55%

Mirassol 2+ goals

19%

Mirassol 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

68%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.87 · 22 matches

Mirassol away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.32 + Mirassol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mirassol attack 0.72 + Avai defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Avai scores more

48%

level

29%

Mirassol scores more

23%

Avai at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Igor Inocêncio

Avai · D

7.9

Match Events

45+8'

Júlio César

46'

Dentinho← Júlio César

46'

Andrey← Eduardo

46'

Robinho← Giva

57'

Andrey

61'

Xavier← Marquinhos Cipriano

62'

Natanael

64'

Camilo← Kauan

65'

Thalisson Kelven

73'

Thalisson Kelven

73'

Thalisson Kelven

74'

Flávio← Leandro Vilela

74'

Reniê← Gabriel

76'

Waguininho← Wellington

81'

Silvinho← Chico

82'

85'

90+12'

90+8'

90+4'

90+13'

90+13'

XavierCard upgrade

90+11'

Manoel Neto

90+6'

S. Patiño↳ Robinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiMirassol

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots11

8Corners4

24Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots11

8On Target3

9Off Target5

2Blocked3

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

401Total Passes313

323Accurate Passes208

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

24Fouls16

6Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Avai vs Mirassol

Avai beat Mirassol 1-0 in Serie B on April 22, 2023.

Goals: S. Patiño (90+6').

Avai controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs Mirassol — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Avai vs Mirassol