Avai 3–2 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Guarani Campinas

João Paulo 62' (pen)

Hygor 48', 20'

Caio Dantas 28' (pen)

Airton 10'

6/15/2024

Serie B · Round 10Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Avai46%

×Draw29%

Guarani Campinas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.88

Avai

1.29

Guarani Campinas

0.88

Avai creates 47% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

1.32

creates per match

0.88

0.87

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Avai

1.32

Guarani Campinas

0.88

allows per match

Avai

0.87

Guarani Campinas

1.25

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Avai-0.14scores less

Guarani Campinas+0.04on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Avai or draw

75%

Avai or Guarani Campinas

71%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

54%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

21%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

72%

Avai 2+ goals

37%

Avai 3+ goals

14%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

59%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

22%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

64%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.87 · 22 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.32 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guarani Campinas attack 0.88 + Avai defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avai scores more

46%

level

29%

Guarani Campinas scores more

25%

Avai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Hygor

Avai · F

9.3

Match Events

3'

10'

20'

25'

26'

28'

Caio DantasPenalty

32'

33'

45+1'

45+6'

45+6'

45+6'

46'

Camacho← Anderson Leite

48'

Hygor↳ Giovanni

62'

William Pottker← Hygor

62'

João PauloPenalty

66'

Bruno Oliveira

70'

Luan Dias← Bruno Oliveira

70'

Reinaldo← Airton

76'

Ademilson← Giovanni

76'

Ronaldo Henrique← Willian Maranhão

80'

Marlon← Matheus Bueno

87'

Luccas Paraizo← Diogo Mateus

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

90+9'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiGuarani

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots16

3Corners4

23Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target5

6Off Target7

1Blocked4

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

351Total Passes522

272Accurate Passes442

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls18

4Yellow Cards9

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Avai vs Guarani Campinas

Avai beat Guarani Campinas 3-2 in Serie B on June 15, 2024.

Goals: Airton (10'), Hygor (20', 48'), Caio Dantas (28' pen), João Paulo (62' pen).

Guarani Campinas controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs Guarani Campinas — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Avai vs Guarani Campinas