Avai 1–3 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Avai

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fortaleza EC

Vinícius Araújo 51'

Wellington Paulista 89' (pen)

Romarinho 52'

Paulão 23'

10/30/2019

Serie A · Round 29Estádio da Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Avai39%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza EC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.17

Avai

1.28

Fortaleza EC

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

1.07

creates per match

1.03

1.30

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Avai

1.07

Fortaleza EC

1.03

allows per match

Avai

1.30

Fortaleza EC

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avai+0.00on par

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avai or draw

66%

Avai or Fortaleza EC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

61%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

17%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

72%

Avai 2+ goals

37%

Avai 3+ goals

14%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

69%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

33%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

54%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.07 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fortaleza EC attack 1.03 + Avai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avai scores more

39%

level

27%

Fortaleza EC scores more

34%

Avai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Romarinho

Fortaleza EC · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

Paulão

25'

Paulão

40'

Léo

46'

Douglas← Léo

51'

Vinícius Araújo↳ Douglas

52'

Romarinho↳ Bruno Melo

60'

Kieza← Edinho

62'

Luanzinho← R. Franco

69'

Matheus Alessandro← Romarinho

70'

Bruno Sávio← Igor Leandro

79'

Derley← Felipe Araruna

81'

Julinho

83'

Jonathan

88'

Eduardo Kunde

89'

Wellington PaulistaPenalty

90'

Bruno Sávio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiFortaleza

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots11

3Corners4

20Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target6

6Off Target3

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

428Total Passes447

357Accurate Passes367

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0