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Avai vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Avai
Avai
Preview
22:30
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
7/21/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 19Ressacada
Big match
40%
Avai
model favours
40%31%29%

America Mineiro score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Avai40%
×Draw31%
America Mineiro29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avai
1.08
America Mineiro
0.87

Avai creates 24% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 86 away

creates per match

Avai
1.21
America Mineiro
0.81

allows per match

Avai
0.93
America Mineiro
0.95

finishing

Avai+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Avai or draw
71%
Avai or America Mineiro
69%
Draw or America Mineiro
60%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+
16%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals
66%
Avai 2+ goals
29%
Avai 3+ goals
10%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
58%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
22%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)
58%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.21 + America Mineiro defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

America Mineiro attack 0.81 + Avai defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avai scores more
40%
level
31%
America Mineiro scores more
29%

Avai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Avai score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Avai win 75% of their home games
  • Avai outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Avai
Balanced
America Mineiro
Possession-dominant
46%PossessionBiggest gap56%
79%Pass accuracy82%
12.1Shots12.8
1.24xG1.26
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AvaiAmerica Mineiro

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Avai
2
Draws
3
America Mineiro
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
0–23–02–21–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Avai
DWLLW
Mineiro
DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avai vs America Mineiro — Match Preview

Avai face America Mineiro on July 21, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Avai host America Mineiro at Ressacada.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.