America Mineiro 1–1 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

America Mineiro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Avai

Brenner 45+4' (pen)

Willian Maranhão 1'

6/26/2024

Serie B · Round 12Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro38%

×Draw27%

Avai35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.19

America Mineiro

1.25

Avai

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.48

creates per match

1.07

1.31

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.48

Avai

1.07

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.31

Avai

1.03

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.04on par

Avai-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

65%

America Mineiro or Avai

73%

Draw or Avai

62%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

16%

Avai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

71%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

36%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

13%

Avai 1+ goals

70%

Avai 2+ goals

33%

Avai 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

52%

Avai (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Avai away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.03 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.48 + Avai defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Avai attack 1.07 + America Mineiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

America Mineiro scores more

38%

level

27%

Avai scores more

35%

America Mineiro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Brenner

America Mineiro · F

8.2

Match Events

1'

Willian Maranhão

16'

Mateus Henrique← Daniel Borges

27'

33'

43'

43'

44'

44'

45+2'

45+4'

BrennerPenalty

46'

Judson← Zé Ricardo

54'

Willian Maranhão

58'

Pedro Castro← Willian Maranhão

60'

Giovanni

63'

Pedrinho← Giovanni

68'

Wallisson← Brenner

69'

Igor Bohn← César Augusto

70'

Wallisson Luiz

70'

Gabriel Poveda← Hygor

79'

Renato Marques← Fabinho

79'

Felipe Amaral← Alê

79'

Vitor Jacaré← Adyson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaAvai

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots12

8Corners4

14Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target5

4Off Target2

3Blocked5

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

359Total Passes431

285Accurate Passes361

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls21

6Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Serie B: America Mineiro 1–1 Avai

America Mineiro and Avai drew 1-1 in Serie B on June 26, 2024.

Goals: Willian Maranhão (1'), Brenner (45+4' pen).

Avai controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

America Mineiro vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: America Mineiro 1–1 Avai