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Auxerre vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Auxerre
Auxerre
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Caen
Caen
3/16/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 29Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Auxerre51%
×Draw25%
Caen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auxerre
1.58
Caen
0.99

Auxerre creates 60% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 107 away

creates per match

Auxerre
1.62
Caen
1.10

allows per match

Auxerre
0.87
Caen
1.53

finishing

Auxerre+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auxerre ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Auxerre or draw
76%
Auxerre or Caen
75%
Draw or Caen
49%

Winning margin

Auxerre wins by 2+
27%
Caen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Auxerre 1+ goals
79%
Auxerre 2+ goals
47%
Auxerre 3+ goals
21%
Caen 1+ goals
63%
Caen 2+ goals
26%
Caen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Auxerre (draw refunded)
68%
Caen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auxerre at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.87 · 91 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auxerre attack 1.62 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Caen attack 1.10 + Auxerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Auxerre scores more
51%
level
25%
Caen scores more
24%

Auxerre at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auxerre vs Caen

Auxerre beat Caen 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Auxerre.