Auxerre 1–1 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Auxerre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bastia

Jubal 38'

M. Alfarela 89'

2/24/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Auxerre49%

×Draw26%

Bastia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuxerreExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.95

Auxerre

1.48

Bastia

0.95

Auxerre creates 56% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

1.62

creates per match

1.03

0.87

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Auxerre

1.62

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Auxerre

0.87

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auxerre+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auxerre ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Auxerre or draw

76%

Auxerre or Bastia

74%

Draw or Bastia

51%

Winning margin

Auxerre wins by 2+

25%

Bastia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Auxerre 1+ goals

77%

Auxerre 2+ goals

43%

Auxerre 3+ goals

19%

Bastia 1+ goals

61%

Bastia 2+ goals

25%

Bastia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Auxerre (draw refunded)

67%

Bastia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auxerre at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.87 · 91 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auxerre attack 1.62 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bastia attack 1.03 + Auxerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Auxerre scores more

49%

level

26%

Bastia scores more

24%

Auxerre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Jubal

Auxerre · D

8.2

Match Events

37'

Mohamed Souboul

38'

Jubal↳ G. Hein

54'

Dylan Tavares← M. Souboul

66'

A. Onaiwu← L. Sinayoko

67'

B. Santelli← G. Charbonnier

68'

F. Conté← J. Janneh

75'

R. Raveloson← G. Perrin

76'

77'

89'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AuxerreBastia

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots11

10Corners1

7Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target5

9Off Target5

2Blocked1

13Inside Box11

2Outside Box0

Passing

58%Possession42%

546Total Passes409

455Accurate Passes310

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0