Auxerre 1–0 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Auxerre

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ajaccio

10/30/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Auxerre56%

×Draw24%

Ajaccio20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuxerreExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.91

Auxerre

1.71

Ajaccio

0.91

Auxerre creates 88% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 19 away

1.10

creates per match

0.68

1.14

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Auxerre

1.10

Ajaccio

0.68

allows per match

Auxerre

1.14

Ajaccio

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auxerre+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auxerre ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Auxerre or draw

80%

Auxerre or Ajaccio

76%

Draw or Ajaccio

44%

Winning margin

Auxerre wins by 2+

31%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Auxerre 1+ goals

82%

Auxerre 2+ goals

51%

Auxerre 3+ goals

24%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

60%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

23%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Auxerre (draw refunded)

74%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auxerre at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auxerre attack 1.10 + Ajaccio defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ajaccio attack 0.68 + Auxerre defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Auxerre scores more

56%

level

24%

Ajaccio scores more

20%

Auxerre at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff