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Autol vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Autol
Autol
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
9/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 1Estadio La Manzanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Autol43%
×Draw26%
Peña Balsamaiso31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Autol
1.40
Peña Balsamaiso
1.15

Autol creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 66 away

creates per match

Autol
0.88
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Autol
1.32
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Autol+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Autol ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Autol or draw
69%
Autol or Peña Balsamaiso
74%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
57%

Winning margin

Autol wins by 2+
20%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Autol 1+ goals
75%
Autol 2+ goals
41%
Autol 3+ goals
17%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
68%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
32%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Autol (draw refunded)
58%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Autol at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Autol attack 0.88 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Autol defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Autol scores more
43%
level
26%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
31%

Autol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Autol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Autol vs Peña Balsamaiso

Peña Balsamaiso beat Autol 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Manzanera in Autol.