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Autol vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Autol
Autol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
10/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio La Manzanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Autol39%
×Draw28%
Haro Deportivo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Autol
1.24
Haro Deportivo
1.13

Autol creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

Autol
0.88
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Autol
1.32
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Autol+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Autol ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Autol or draw
67%
Autol or Haro Deportivo
72%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
61%

Winning margin

Autol wins by 2+
17%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Autol 1+ goals
71%
Autol 2+ goals
35%
Autol 3+ goals
13%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
31%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Autol (draw refunded)
54%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Autol at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Autol attack 0.88 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Autol defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Autol scores more
39%
level
28%
Haro Deportivo scores more
33%

Autol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Autol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Autol 2–0 Haro Deportivo

Autol beat Haro Deportivo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Manzanera in Autol.