Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Autol vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Autol
Autol
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 16Estadio La Manzanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Autol34%
×Draw27%
Casalarreina39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Autol
1.23
Casalarreina
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 91 away

creates per match

Autol
0.88
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Autol
1.32
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Autol+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Autol ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Autol or draw
61%
Autol or Casalarreina
73%
Draw or Casalarreina
66%

Winning margin

Autol wins by 2+
15%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Autol 1+ goals
71%
Autol 2+ goals
35%
Autol 3+ goals
13%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
74%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
38%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Autol (draw refunded)
47%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Autol at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Autol attack 0.88 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Autol defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Autol scores more
34%
level
27%
Casalarreina scores more
39%

Casalarreina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Autol vs Casalarreina

Autol beat Casalarreina 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Manzanera in Autol.