Austria Wien W 7–0 Bergheim W: Result & Stats

Austria Wien W

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Bergheim W

9/17/2022

Frauenliga · Round 3Generali Arena - Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Austria Wien W71%

×Draw16%

Bergheim W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria Wien WExpected goals in this matchBergheim W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.01

Austria Wien W

2.63

Bergheim W

1.01

Austria Wien W creates 160% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

2.43

creates per match

1.13

0.90

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Austria Wien W

2.43

Bergheim W

1.13

allows per match

Austria Wien W

0.90

Bergheim W

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Wien W+0.00on par

Bergheim W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Wien W ↓

Bergheim W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Austria Wien W or draw

88%

Austria Wien W or Bergheim W

84%

Draw or Bergheim W

29%

Winning margin

Austria Wien W wins by 2+

50%

Bergheim W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Austria Wien W 1+ goals

93%

Austria Wien W 2+ goals

73%

Austria Wien W 3+ goals

48%

Bergheim W 1+ goals

64%

Bergheim W 2+ goals

27%

Bergheim W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Austria Wien W (draw refunded)

85%

Bergheim W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Wien W at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Bergheim W away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.83 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Wien W attack 2.43 + Bergheim W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.63

Bergheim W attack 1.13 + Austria Wien W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Austria Wien W scores more

71%

level

16%

Bergheim W scores more

12%

Austria Wien W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Austria Wien W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff