Austria W 1–6 Sweden W: Result & Stats

Austria W

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 4

Sweden W

V. Kirchberger 25'

S. Jakobsson 81'

F. Rolfö 56', 34'

F. Angeldal 45+1'

L. Hurtig 37'

L. Sembrant 20'

2/19/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Hibernians Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Austria W25%

×Draw21%

Sweden W54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria WExpected goals in this matchSweden W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.04

Austria W

1.33

Sweden W

2.04

Sweden W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

2.25

1.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Austria W

1.67

Sweden W

2.25

allows per match

Austria W

1.83

Sweden W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria W+0.00on par

Sweden W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria W ↓

Sweden W →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Austria W or draw

46%

Austria W or Sweden W

79%

Draw or Sweden W

75%

Winning margin

Austria W wins by 2+

10%

Sweden W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Austria W 1+ goals

74%

Austria W 2+ goals

38%

Austria W 3+ goals

15%

Sweden W 1+ goals

87%

Sweden W 2+ goals

60%

Sweden W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Austria W (draw refunded)

32%

Sweden W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Austria W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Sweden W away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Austria W attack 1.67 + Sweden W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sweden W attack 2.25 + Austria W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Austria W scores more

25%

level

21%

Sweden W scores more

54%

Sweden W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sweden W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

L. Sembrant↳ O. Schough

25'

V. Kirchberger↳ N. Billa

34'

F. Rolfö

37'

L. Hurtig↳ O. Schough

45+1'

F. Angeldal↳ F. Rolfö

46'

S. Enzinger← M. Höbinger

46'

N. Björn← C. Seger

56'

F. Rolfö↳ S. Jakobsson

61'

J. Rytting-Kaneryd← F. Rolfö

61'

H. Bennison← F. Angeldal

70'

J. Klein← L. Feiersinger

78'

R. Blomqvist← O. Schough

78'

J. Rybrink← N. Fischer

78'

S. Blackstenius← L. Hurtig

81'

S. Jakobsson↳ N. Björn

Austria

Sweden

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2A

▼

Rolfö

⚽

▼

Angeldal

⚽A

Jakobsson

▼

Schough

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: I. Fuhrmann

46'▲S. Enzinger←▼M. Höbinger

70'▲J. Klein←▼L. Feiersinger

Austria W substitutes

22Enzinger18Klein21Gritzner5Mayr11Pireci1Krammer19Georgieva2Weilharter16Eder6Bereuter20Makas4Degen

Manager: P. Gerhardsson

46'▲N. Björn←▼C. Seger

61'▲J. Rytting-Kaneryd←▼F. Rolfö

61'▲H. Bennison←▼F. Angeldal

78'▲R. Blomqvist←▼O. Schough

78'▲J. Rybrink←▼N. Fischer

78'▲S. Blackstenius←▼L. Hurtig

Sweden W substitutes

14Björn23Rytting-Kaneryd20Bennison24Blomqvist15Rybrink11Blackstenius16Roddar12Falk21Holmgren7Larsson6Kullberg25Curmark

Friendlies Women: Austria W 1–6 Sweden W

Sweden W beat Austria W 6-1 in Friendlies Women on February 19, 2021.

Goals: L. Sembrant (20'), V. Kirchberger (25'), F. Rolfö (34', 56'), L. Hurtig (37'), F. Angeldal (45+1'), S. Jakobsson (81').

The match was played at Hibernians Stadium in Paola.

Austria W vs Sweden W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Austria W 1–6 Sweden W