Austria 1–0 Tunisia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Austria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tunisia

M. Sabitzer 63'

6/1/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalErnst Happel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Austria64%

×Draw22%

Tunisia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustriaExpected goals in this matchTunisia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.71

Austria

1.81

Tunisia

0.71

Austria creates 155% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

2.07

creates per match

0.72

0.71

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Austria

2.07

Tunisia

0.72

allows per match

Austria

0.71

Tunisia

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria+0.00on par

Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Tunisia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Austria or draw

86%

Austria or Tunisia

78%

Draw or Tunisia

36%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+

37%

Tunisia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals

84%

Austria 2+ goals

54%

Austria 3+ goals

27%

Tunisia 1+ goals

51%

Tunisia 2+ goals

16%

Tunisia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)

82%

Tunisia (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Tunisia away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Tunisia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tunisia attack 0.72 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Austria scores more

64%

level

22%

Tunisia scores more

14%

Austria at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Sabitzer

Austria · M

8.3

Match Events

36'

Konrad LaimerCard upgrade

37'

Konrad Laimer

46'

S. Kalajdzic← M. Arnautovic

46'

P. Mwene← M. Gregoritsch

46'

K. Danso← D. Alaba

46'

M. Friedl← P. Lienhart

46'

C. Chukwuemeka← R. Schmid

57'

Ismael Gharbi

62'

P. Wanner← X. Schlager

62'

S. Tounekti← I. Gharbi

62'

K. Ayari← A. Slimane

62'

R. Elloumi← F. Chaouat

63'

M. Sabitzer↳ S. Posch

76'

Kevin Danso

76'

Marcel Sabitzer

78'

M. Belhadj← H. Mejbri

80'

A. Prass← S. Posch

82'

E. Saad← R. Khedira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AustriaTunisia

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots14

2Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target2

5Off Target9

0Blocked3

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

466Total Passes327

415Accurate Passes280

89%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2