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Austria vs Sweden — Friendlies 2026

Austria
Austria
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sweden
Sweden
D. Alaba 64'
F. Helander 11' (OG)
9/6/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Austria63%
×Draw21%
Sweden16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.94
Sweden
0.85

Austria creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Austria
2.07
Sweden
1.00

allows per match

Austria
0.71
Sweden
1.80

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Sweden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Austria or draw
84%
Austria or Sweden
79%
Draw or Sweden
37%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
38%
Sweden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
86%
Austria 2+ goals
58%
Austria 3+ goals
30%
Sweden 1+ goals
57%
Sweden 2+ goals
21%
Sweden 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
80%
Sweden (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Sweden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sweden attack 1.00 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Austria scores more
63%
level
21%
Sweden scores more
16%

Austria at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. HelanderOwn goal
45'
Marko Arnautović
46'
A. Dragović← S. Prödl
46'
K. Johnsson← K. Nordfeldt
46'
J. Guidetti← I. Thelin
59'
M. Gregoritsch← G. Burgstaller
59'
V. Lazaro← A. Schöpf
62'
S. Larsson← O. Hiljemark
64'
D. Alaba↳ M. Arnautović
65'
M. Sabitzer← M. Arnautović
65'
A. Ulmer← D. Alaba
67'
V. Claesson← K. Sema
78'
S. Larsson← G. Svensson
81'
X. Schlager← F. Grillitsch

Possession

42%Austria

Shots

9Austria

Statistics

AustriaSweden
Overview
42%Possession58%
9Total Shots4
5Corners4
16Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots4
3On Target3
6Off Target1
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Friendlies: Austria 2–0 Sweden

Austria beat Sweden 2-0 in Friendlies on September 6, 2018.

Goals: F. Helander (11' o.g.), D. Alaba (64').

Sweden controlled possession (58%) and registered 4 shots to 9.

The match was played at Generali Arena in Vienna.