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Austria vs Slovakia — Friendlies 2026

Austria
Austria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovakia
Slovakia
6/6/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Austria60%
×Draw23%
Slovakia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.75
Slovakia
0.80

Austria creates 119% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Austria
2.07
Slovakia
0.89

allows per match

Austria
0.71
Slovakia
1.44

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Slovakia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Austria or draw
83%
Austria or Slovakia
77%
Draw or Slovakia
40%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
34%
Slovakia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
83%
Austria 2+ goals
52%
Austria 3+ goals
25%
Slovakia 1+ goals
55%
Slovakia 2+ goals
19%
Slovakia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
78%
Slovakia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Slovakia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Slovakia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Slovakia attack 0.89 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Austria scores more
60%
level
23%
Slovakia scores more
17%

Austria at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Austria 0–0 Slovakia

Austria and Slovakia drew 0-0 in Friendlies on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Wien.