Austria 2–1 Serbia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Austria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Serbia

C. Baumgartner 13'

P. Wimmer 10'

S. Pavlović 35'

6/4/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Austria55%

×Draw24%

Serbia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustriaExpected goals in this matchSerbia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.97

Austria

1.74

Serbia

0.97

Austria creates 79% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

2.07

creates per match

1.24

0.71

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Austria

2.07

Serbia

1.24

allows per match

Austria

0.71

Serbia

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria+0.00on par

Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Serbia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Austria or draw

79%

Austria or Serbia

76%

Draw or Serbia

45%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+

31%

Serbia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals

82%

Austria 2+ goals

52%

Austria 3+ goals

25%

Serbia 1+ goals

62%

Serbia 2+ goals

25%

Serbia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)

73%

Serbia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Serbia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.74

Serbia attack 1.24 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Austria scores more

55%

level

24%

Serbia scores more

21%

Austria at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Baumgartner

Austria · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Marko Arnautović

10'

P. Wimmer↳ C. Baumgartner

13'

C. Baumgartner↳ F. Grillitsch

35'

S. Pavlović

43'

K. Laimer← F. Grillitsch

43'

I. Ilić← N. Maksimović

46'

M. Gregoritsch← M. Arnautović

46'

N. Milenković← U. Spajić

46'

A. Mitrović← D. Tadić

61'

P. Lienhart← M. Wöber

62'

A. Weimann← R. Schmid

62'

M. Grüll← C. Baumgartner

64'

V. Birmančević← M. Gaćinović

64'

L. Samardžić← N. Gudelj

71'

Stefan Posch

72'

Aleksandar Mitrović

73'

L. Querfeld← K. Danso

75'

L. Jović← D. Vlahović

75'

S. Lukić← S. Milinković-Savić

78'

M. Entrup← P. Wimmer

83'

Konrad Laimer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AustriaSerbia

Overview

53%Possession47%

5Total Shots7

1Corners6

19Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots7

3On Target1

1Off Target4

1Blocked2

2Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

462Total Passes398

364Accurate Passes311

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Austria vs Serbia

Austria beat Serbia 2-1 in Friendlies on June 4, 2024.

Goals: P. Wimmer (10'), C. Baumgartner (13'), S. Pavlović (35').

Austria controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 7.

The match was played at Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Wien.

Austria vs Serbia — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Austria vs Serbia