Austria 2–2 Scotland: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Austria

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Scotland

A. Schöpf 82'

M. Gregoritsch 75'

J. McGinn 56'

J. Hendry 28'

3/29/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Austria49%

×Draw25%

Scotland26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustriaExpected goals in this matchScotland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Austria

1.63

Scotland

1.13

Austria creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

2.07

creates per match

1.55

0.71

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Austria

2.07

Scotland

1.55

allows per match

Austria

0.71

Scotland

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria+0.00on par

Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Scotland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Austria or draw

74%

Austria or Scotland

75%

Draw or Scotland

51%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+

26%

Scotland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals

80%

Austria 2+ goals

48%

Austria 3+ goals

22%

Scotland 1+ goals

68%

Scotland 2+ goals

31%

Scotland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)

65%

Scotland (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Scotland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.63

Scotland attack 1.55 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Austria scores more

49%

level

25%

Scotland scores more

26%

Austria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Hendry

56'

J. McGinn↳ K. Tierney

57'

S. O'Donnell← N. Patterson

58'

S. McTominay← R. Jack

58'

A. Hickey← A. Robertson

59'

M. Grüll← S. Lainer

59'

A. Schöpf← C. Baumgartner

66'

L. Dykes← C. Adams

74'

M. Gregoritsch← S. Kalajdzic

74'

A. Weimann← S. Ilsanker

75'

M. Gregoritsch↳ A. Ulmer

77'

B. Gilmour← L. Ferguson

77'

R. Christie← S. Armstrong

82'

A. Schöpf

87'

M. Ullmann← A. Ulmer

87'

P. Pentz← D. Bachmann

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AustriaScotland

Overview

61%Possession39%

21Total Shots9

11Corners2

16Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots9

12On Target5

9Off Target4

Passing

61%Possession39%

Goalkeeping

3Saves10

Discipline

16Fouls9

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1