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Austria vs Latvia — Euro Championship 2024

Austria
Austria
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Latvia
Latvia
M. Gregoritsch 84'
K. Laimer 80'
P. Šteinbors 76' (OG)
M. Arnautović 53' (pen), 7'
M. Sabitzer 13'
9/6/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Austria77%
×Draw15%
Latvia8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
2.57
Latvia
0.70

Austria creates 267% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Austria
1.89
Latvia
0.50

allows per match

Austria
0.89
Latvia
3.25

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Latvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Austria or draw
92%
Austria or Latvia
85%
Draw or Latvia
23%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
55%
Latvia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
92%
Austria 2+ goals
72%
Austria 3+ goals
47%
Latvia 1+ goals
50%
Latvia 2+ goals
16%
Latvia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
91%
Latvia (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Latvia away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.89 + Latvia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.57

Latvia attack 0.50 + Austria defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Austria scores more
77%
level
15%
Latvia scores more
8%

Austria at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
K. LaimerAustriaAustria · M
9.4

Match Events

4'
Armands Petersons
7'
M. Arnautović
13'
M. Sabitzer↳ K. Laimer
52'
Boriss Bogdaskins
53'
M. ArnautovićPenalty
67'
R. Savaļnieks← A. Cigaņiks
69'
M. Gregoritsch← V. Lazaro
75'
S. Ilsanker← J. Baumgartlinger
76'
P. ŠteinborsOwn goal
77'
R. Rugins← K. Tobers
80'
Oļegs Laizāns
80'
K. Laimer
81'
Ritvars Rugins
82'
F. Grillitsch← A. Dragović
82'
R. Uldriķis← O. Laizāns
84'
M. Gregoritsch
87'
Roberts Savalnieks

Possession

76%Austria

Shots

31Austria

Pass accuracy

58%Austria

Statistics

AustriaLatvia
Overview
76%Possession24%
31Total Shots1
11Corners2
9Fouls14
Shots
31Total Shots1
11On Target1
9Off Target0
11Blocked0
17Inside Box1
14Outside Box0
Passing
76%Possession24%
762Total Passes236
674Accurate Passes154
88%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls14
0Yellow Cards5
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Austria vs Latvia

Austria beat Latvia 6-0 in Euro Championship on September 6, 2019.

Goals: M. Arnautović (7', 53' pen), M. Sabitzer (13'), P. Šteinbors (76' o.g.), K. Laimer (80'), M. Gregoritsch (84').

Austria controlled possession (76%) and registered 31 shots to 1.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim.