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Austria vs Guatemala — Friendlies 2026

Austria
Austria
CANC
04:00
Guatemala
Guatemala
6/11/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalRose Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Austria70%
×Draw20%
Guatemala11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
2.01
Guatemala
0.64

Austria creates 214% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Austria
2.07
Guatemala
0.57

allows per match

Austria
0.71
Guatemala
1.96

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Guatemala+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Guatemala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Austria or draw
89%
Austria or Guatemala
80%
Draw or Guatemala
30%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
44%
Guatemala wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
87%
Austria 2+ goals
59%
Austria 3+ goals
32%
Guatemala 1+ goals
47%
Guatemala 2+ goals
14%
Guatemala 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
87%
Guatemala (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Guatemala away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Guatemala defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.01

Guatemala attack 0.57 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Austria scores more
70%
level
20%
Guatemala scores more
11%

Austria at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Austria host Guatemala

June 11, 2026: Austria take on Guatemala in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Austria host Guatemala at Rose Bowl.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.