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Austria vs Ghana — Friendlies 2026

Austria
Austria
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ghana
Ghana
N. Seiwald 90'
C. Chukwuemeka 79'
S. Posch 59'
M. Gregoritsch 51'
M. Sabitzer 12' (pen)
J. Ayew 77'
3/27/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalErnst Happel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Austria65%
×Draw21%
Ghana14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.94
Ghana
0.78

Austria creates 149% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Austria
2.07
Ghana
0.85

allows per match

Austria
0.71
Ghana
1.80

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Ghana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Ghana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Austria or draw
86%
Austria or Ghana
79%
Draw or Ghana
35%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
39%
Ghana wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
86%
Austria 2+ goals
58%
Austria 3+ goals
30%
Ghana 1+ goals
54%
Ghana 2+ goals
18%
Ghana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
82%
Ghana (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Ghana away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Ghana defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ghana attack 0.85 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Austria scores more
65%
level
21%
Ghana scores more
14%

Austria at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. SabitzerAustriaAustria · M
9.0

Match Events

12'
M. SabitzerPenalty
45+3'
Thomas Partey
46'
F. Wiegele← A. Schlager
46'
P. Lienhart← K. Danso
46'
P. Wimmer← R. Schmid
46'
A. Prass← P. Mwene
46'
P. Wanner← F. Grillitsch
51'
M. Gregoritsch↳ M. Sabitzer
59'
S. Posch↳ M. Gregoritsch
61'
C. Chukwuemeka← C. Baumgartner
62'
M. Arnautovic← M. Gregoritsch
62'
M. Svoboda← M. Friedl
65'
Kwasi Sibo
69'
P. Pfeiffer← J. Adjetey
69'
I. Sulemana← K. Sibo
69'
G. Mensah← D. Kohn
69'
J. Opoku← P. Adu
70'
M. Senaya← C. Yirenkyi
70'
R. Konigsdorffer← I. Fatawu
74'
Stefan Posch
77'
J. Ayew↳ I. Sulemana
79'
C. Chukwuemeka↳ M. Sabitzer
80'
D. Affengruber← S. Posch
80'
S. Kalajdzic← M. Sabitzer
86'
E. Owusu← T. Partey
86'
C. Bonsu Baah← J. Ayew
86'
K. Sulemana← A. Semenyo
90'
N. Seiwald

Possession

60%Austria

Shots

11Austria

Pass accuracy

52%Austria

Statistics

AustriaGhana
Overview
60%Possession40%
11Total Shots5
5Corners3
11Fouls5
Shots
11Total Shots5
7On Target1
3Off Target3
1Blocked1
10Inside Box4
1Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
469Total Passes315
409Accurate Passes252
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls5
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Austria vs Ghana

Austria beat Ghana 5-1 in Friendlies on March 27, 2026.

Goals: M. Sabitzer (12' pen), M. Gregoritsch (51'), S. Posch (59'), J. Ayew (77'), C. Chukwuemeka (79'), N. Seiwald (90').

Austria controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna.