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Austria vs Germany — Friendlies 2026

Austria
Austria
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Germany
Germany
A. Schöpf 69'
M. Hinteregger 53'
M. Özil 11'
6/2/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Worthersee Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Austria46%
×Draw24%
Germany30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.62
Germany
1.27

Austria creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Austria
2.07
Germany
1.83

allows per match

Austria
0.71
Germany
1.17

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Germany+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Germany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Austria or draw
70%
Austria or Germany
76%
Draw or Germany
54%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
23%
Germany wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
80%
Austria 2+ goals
48%
Austria 3+ goals
22%
Germany 1+ goals
72%
Germany 2+ goals
36%
Germany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
60%
Germany (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Germany away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Germany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.62

Germany attack 1.83 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austria scores more
46%
level
24%
Germany scores more
30%

Austria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Özil
46'
S. Rudy← S. Khedira
53'
M. Hinteregger↳ D. Alaba
56'
L. Goretzka← İ. Gündoğan
67'
T. Werner← J. Brandt
67'
M. Reus← L. Sané
69'
A. Schöpf↳ S. Lainer
76'
M. Bauer← A. Schöpf
76'
J. Draxler← M. Özil
76'
M. Gómez← N. Petersen
79'
S. Ilsanker← F. Grillitsch
84'
G. Burgstaller← M. Arnautović
88'
F. Kainz← P. Zulj

Possession

36%Austria

Shots

12Austria

Statistics

AustriaGermany
Overview
36%Possession64%
12Total Shots5
5Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots5
8On Target4
4Off Target1
Passing
36%Possession64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls10
0Red Cards0
0Offsides6

Match Recap: Austria vs Germany

Austria beat Germany 2-1 in Friendlies on June 2, 2018.

Goals: M. Özil (11'), M. Hinteregger (53'), A. Schöpf (69').

Germany controlled possession (64%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at Worthersee Stadion in Klagenfurt.