Austria 1–1 France: Result & Stats

Austria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

France

A. Weimann 37'

K. Mbappé 83'

6/10/2022

UEFA Nations League · League A - 3Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Austria39%

×Draw25%

France36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustriaExpected goals in this matchFrance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.40

Austria

1.46

France

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

1.67

creates per match

1.63

1.17

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Austria

1.67

France

1.63

allows per match

Austria

1.17

France

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria+0.00on par

France+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

France →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Austria or draw

64%

Austria or France

75%

Draw or France

61%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+

18%

France wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals

77%

Austria 2+ goals

43%

Austria 3+ goals

18%

France 1+ goals

75%

France 2+ goals

41%

France 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)

52%

France (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

France away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.67 + France defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

France attack 1.63 + Austria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Austria scores more

39%

level

25%

France scores more

36%

Austria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

P. Pentz

Austria · G

7.9

Match Events

9'

Stefan Lainer

17'

Nicolas Seiwald

37'

A. Weimann↳ K. Laimer

54'

V. Lazaro← S. Lainer

63'

K. Mbappé← A. Griezmann

63'

M. Guendouzi← A. Tchouaméni

64'

M. Gregoritsch← A. Weimann

64'

K. Onisiwo← M. Arnautović

69'

79'

83'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AustriaFrance

Overview

33%Possession67%

4Total Shots15

3Corners10

10Fouls6

Shots

4Total Shots15

3On Target7

1Off Target5

0Blocked3

3Inside Box9

1Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

329Total Passes664

258Accurate Passes581

78%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls6

4Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1