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Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
8/24/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 4Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Austria Vienna45%
×Draw24%
TSV Hartberg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Vienna
1.67
TSV Hartberg
1.33

Austria Vienna creates 26% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 131 away

creates per match

Austria Vienna
1.58
TSV Hartberg
1.40

allows per match

Austria Vienna
1.27
TSV Hartberg
1.76

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par
TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

TSV Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw
69%
Austria Vienna or TSV Hartberg
76%
Draw or TSV Hartberg
55%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+
24%
TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals
81%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
50%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
23%
TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
74%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
38%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
60%
TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Austria Vienna scores more
45%
level
24%
TSV Hartberg scores more
31%

Austria Vienna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg

TSV Hartberg beat Austria Vienna 3-1 in Bundesliga on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Generali Arena in Vienna.