Austria Vienna 3–0 SCR Altach: Result & Stats

Austria Vienna

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SCR Altach

12/8/2024

Bundesliga · Round 16Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Austria Vienna48%

×Draw25%

SCR Altach27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria ViennaExpected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.11

Austria Vienna

1.59

SCR Altach

1.11

Austria Vienna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 129 away

1.58

creates per match

0.96

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Austria Vienna

1.58

SCR Altach

0.96

allows per match

Austria Vienna

1.27

SCR Altach

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

SCR Altach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw

73%

Austria Vienna or SCR Altach

75%

Draw or SCR Altach

52%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

25%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

80%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

47%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

21%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

67%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

30%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

65%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + SCR Altach defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

SCR Altach attack 0.96 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Austria Vienna scores more

48%

level

25%

SCR Altach scores more

27%

Austria Vienna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff