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Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
Preview
16:00
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
11/21/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 13Generali Arena
Big match
47%
Red Bull Salzburg
model favours
29%24%47%

Red Bull Salzburg have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Austria Vienna29%
×Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Vienna
1.29
Red Bull Salzburg
1.71

Red Bull Salzburg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 128 away

creates per match

Austria Vienna
1.58
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

Austria Vienna
1.27
Red Bull Salzburg
1.01

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw
53%
Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg
76%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
71%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+
12%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals
72%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
37%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
14%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
82%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
51%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
38%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Austria Vienna scores more
29%
level
24%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
47%

Red Bull Salzburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Red Bull Salzburg raise their game against the top half — 67% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower
  • 68% of Red Bull Salzburg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Austria Vienna play Direct / counter-attacking, Red Bull Salzburg Attack-heavy
  • Red Bull Salzburg fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Austria Vienna outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.0 expected)
  • 20% of Red Bull Salzburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Austria Vienna
Direct / counter-attacking
Red Bull Salzburg
Attack-heavy
44%Possession59%
74%Pass accuracy85%
10.4Shots17.4
1.02xGBiggest gap1.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Austria ViennaRed Bull Salzburg

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
8
Red Bull Salzburg
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 30%
1–31–32–00–30–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Vienna
WDDWL
Salzburg
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Vienna face Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga returns with Austria Vienna hosting Red Bull Salzburg. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria Vienna host Red Bull Salzburg at Generali Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.