Austria Vienna 1–3 Red Bull Salzburg

Austria Vienna

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Red Bull Salzburg

4/20/2025

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 4Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Austria Vienna29%

×Draw24%

Red Bull Salzburg47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria ViennaExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.71

Austria Vienna

1.29

Red Bull Salzburg

1.71

Red Bull Salzburg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 128 away

1.58

creates per match

2.15

1.27

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Austria Vienna

1.58

Red Bull Salzburg

2.15

allows per match

Austria Vienna

1.27

Red Bull Salzburg

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw

53%

Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg

76%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

71%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

12%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

72%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

37%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

14%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

82%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

51%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

38%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Austria Vienna scores more

29%

level

24%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

47%

Red Bull Salzburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff