Austria Vienna 1–2 Rapid Vienna: Result & Stats

Austria Vienna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rapid Vienna

D. Fitz 80' (pen)

E. Kara 84'

G. Burgstaller 32'

5/11/2025

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 8Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Austria Vienna41%

×Draw25%

Rapid Vienna35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria ViennaExpected goals in this matchRapid Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.38

Austria Vienna

1.52

Rapid Vienna

1.38

Austria Vienna creates 10% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

1.58

creates per match

1.49

1.27

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Austria Vienna

1.58

Rapid Vienna

1.49

allows per match

Austria Vienna

1.27

Rapid Vienna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

Rapid Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw

65%

Austria Vienna or Rapid Vienna

75%

Draw or Rapid Vienna

59%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

20%

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

78%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

45%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

20%

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

75%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

40%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

54%

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rapid Vienna attack 1.49 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Austria Vienna scores more

41%

level

25%

Rapid Vienna scores more

35%

Austria Vienna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

D. Fitz

Austria Vienna · F

8.7

Match Events

12'

Nik Prelec

27'

Matteo Perez Vinlöf

32'

G. Burgstaller↳ I. Jansson

47'

Aleksandar Dragović

52'

Bendegúz Bolla

67'

Niklas Hedl

68'

A. Gruber← M. Fischer

68'

H. Guenouche← M. Vinlöf

69'

E. Kara← G. Burgstaller

75'

N. Bischof← M. Sangaré

75'

A. Radulović← I. Jansson

79'

Maurice MalonePenalty confirmed

80'

Maurice Malone

80'

D. FitzPenalty

84'

E. Kara↳ M. Seidl

87'

Dominik Fitz

89'

R. Kerschbaum← M. Seidl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AustriaRapid

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots8

10Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked2

13Inside Box5

1Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

426Total Passes250

341Accurate Passes178

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1