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Austria Vienna vs Paks — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Paks
Paks
T. Plavotic 45+17'
Unknown 90+16', 0', 0'
7/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Sportplatz Dietersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Austria Vienna40%
×Draw22%
Paks38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Vienna
1.82
Paks
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Austria Vienna
2.21
Paks
2.50

allows per match

Austria Vienna
1.00
Paks
1.43

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par
Paks+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

Paks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw
62%
Austria Vienna or Paks
78%
Draw or Paks
60%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+
21%
Paks wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals
84%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
54%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
27%
Paks 1+ goals
83%
Paks 2+ goals
52%
Paks 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
52%
Paks (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Paks away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 2.21 + Paks defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.82

Paks attack 2.50 + Austria Vienna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Austria Vienna scores more
40%
level
22%
Paks scores more
38%

Austria Vienna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'
0'
45+17'
T. Plavotic
90+16'
Austria
Paks
C. Wegleitner
Manager: C. Wegleitner
G. Bognár
Manager: G. Bognár

Match Recap: Austria Vienna vs Paks

Paks beat Austria Vienna 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (0', 0', 90+16'), T. Plavotic (45+17').

The match was played at Sportplatz Dietersdorf in Dietersdorf bei Fürstenfeld.