Austria Vienna 2–2 Austria Klagenfurt

Austria Vienna

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Austria Klagenfurt

9/3/2023

Bundesliga · Round 6Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Austria Vienna50%

×Draw23%

Austria Klagenfurt27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria ViennaExpected goals in this matchAustria Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.27

Austria Vienna

1.79

Austria Klagenfurt

1.27

Austria Vienna creates 41% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 65 away

1.60

creates per match

1.29

1.24

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Austria Vienna

1.60

Austria Klagenfurt

1.29

allows per match

Austria Vienna

1.24

Austria Klagenfurt

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

Austria Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw

73%

Austria Vienna or Austria Klagenfurt

77%

Draw or Austria Klagenfurt

50%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

27%

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

83%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

53%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

26%

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals

72%

Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals

36%

Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

65%

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 131 matches

Austria Klagenfurt away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.97 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.60 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.29 + Austria Vienna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Austria Vienna scores more

50%

level

23%

Austria Klagenfurt scores more

27%

Austria Vienna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff