Austria U19 W 1–3 Switzerland U19 W: Result & Stats

Austria U19 W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Switzerland U19 W

2/24/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesGloria Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Austria U19 W23%

×Draw21%

Switzerland U19 W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19 WExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.17

Austria U19 W

1.33

Switzerland U19 W

2.17

Switzerland U19 W creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

3.00

1.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Austria U19 W

2.00

Switzerland U19 W

3.00

allows per match

Austria U19 W

1.33

Switzerland U19 W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19 W+0.00on par

Switzerland U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 W ↓

Switzerland U19 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Austria U19 W or draw

44%

Austria U19 W or Switzerland U19 W

79%

Draw or Switzerland U19 W

77%

Winning margin

Austria U19 W wins by 2+

10%

Switzerland U19 W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Austria U19 W 1+ goals

74%

Austria U19 W 2+ goals

38%

Austria U19 W 3+ goals

15%

Switzerland U19 W 1+ goals

89%

Switzerland U19 W 2+ goals

64%

Switzerland U19 W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 W (draw refunded)

29%

Switzerland U19 W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Switzerland U19 W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 W attack 2.00 + Switzerland U19 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Switzerland U19 W attack 3.00 + Austria U19 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Austria U19 W scores more

23%

level

21%

Switzerland U19 W scores more

56%

Switzerland U19 W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Switzerland U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff